QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin ETF was rejected in line with expectations, Syria warfare helped to rebound (1010)

Abstract: Yesterday evening, the market rose rapidly. Bitcoin and Ethereum performed strongly, and Litecoin and grapefruit were relatively weak. Bitwise’s Bitcoin ETF application was rejected, basically in line with market expectations; Syria’s renewed war, short-term gold and bitcoin and other safe-haven assets reacted significantly.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 10, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,761.14 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +4.77%, the total turnover was 487.892 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +31.64%. Market activity has increased significantly. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BNB had the largest increase in 24 hours (+10.02%), and XRP had the smallest increase in 24 hours (+1.39%). The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11964.91 points and rose to +5.00% in 24 hours, reflecting the rapid rise of the broader market.

The Bitcoin Strength Index was 92.83 points, up or down +1.52% in 24 hours, indicating that the market performance of Bitcoin was relatively strong; the Alternative sentiment index was 41, which was higher than yesterday (37), and the market sentiment was still fearful. The USDT has risen and fallen to -0.06% for 24 hours. Today's net inflow of funds was 221,379,800 yuan, which was lower than yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Discount and Premium Index was reported at 100.01, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.57%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 95) has increased from the previous value (peak 86), which is close to the median of a month. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (46), South Africa (44), Brazil (40), Austria (39), Germany (37) and Switzerland (36). Among the related query words, today's search volume rose to the top of the list of bitcoin schürfen (German, mining), yesterday's first bitcoin etf search volume increased by 80%. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 51) has fallen back from the previous value (peak 84), approaching a one-month low.

Analyst's point of view:

In the early hours of the morning, the bitcoin ETF application submitted by Bitwise was rejected "in advance". The reason given by the SEC is that the ETF proposal does not meet the legal requirements for preventing market manipulation or other illegal activities. Later, Bitwise officially sent a response, saying that “the journey is still going on. We are committed to continue to work with the US SEC to provide data and analysis on the industry and its progress. Today's 112-page report shows areas of focus. We Will apply again at the right time.” Yesterday the article mentioned that this rejected news market has been expected.

In the file submitted by Bitwise, the three main reasons why the Bitcoin ETF can mature are given: 1. The spot market of Bitcoin has become effective, and the average spread of Bitcoin on various exchanges has become more and more Small; 2. The increasing number of large Bitcoin hosting services has made Bitcoin asset management more secure; 3. With the increasing number of regulated futures markets, its market influence is gradually increasing. However, these are enough to overturn the reasons given by the SEC, because the current bitcoin exchanges are located in various countries around the world, and the regulated transaction volume is very limited, it is difficult to meet the needs of the SEC.

Another news has made the situation in the Middle East tense again, and safe-haven assets such as gold and bitcoin have rebounded. The Syrian war as a "mini-world war" involved multiple conflicts of interest. After the withdrawal of the US troops from Syria, the situation was unbalanced and the war was revived.

After the US military withdrew from Syria on the 07th, Turkey’s back foot launched an offensive against Syria yesterday. This is the second large-scale military operation by Turkey against Syria after January 2018. According to reports, the Turkish army launched military operations in the northern part of the province of Sussex, shelling the "Syrian Democratic Army" led by the Kurdish armed forces, causing the destruction of local infrastructure and the large number of refugees fleeing.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday evening BTC heavy upswing, breaking the recent high of 8500 US dollars, the highest hit 8700 US dollars, is expected to stabilize the five-day moving average, short-term range shocks.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 969.296 million yuan. Among them, the over-single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 11,749,400 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 119.334 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow was 64,940,400 yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 32,408.70 million yuan. The market is mostly net inflows.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 98.36EH/s, which was lower than the previous day (102.09EH/s), which was close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 701,000, compared with the previous day ( 6.632 million) slightly increased, higher than the three-month average; the volume of transactions on the chain was 851,300, which was higher than the previous day (750,900), which was close to the median of one month; the number of coins destroyed was 3.283 million (lower historical value) ), a significant decline from the previous day (116.842 million), the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, ETH's BTC relative price climbed, but after hitting 0.0230BTC in the early morning, there was a small heavy volume down. Now it is returning to the high point of the previous day. The short-term performance has turned weak and weak, and the upside momentum has been temporarily suppressed.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 40,384,570 yuan. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 4,494,800 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 6,309,790 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 34.63 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 37.43 million yuan. The market is dominated by net inflows of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased. Financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 4.6k, 24 hours change +111.03%; game application My Crypto Heroes 24-hour active users 2.9k, 24-hour change -3.84%; trading application ForkDelta 24-hour active users 424 , 24 hours change + 27.71%.

Third, the spot LTC market

The LTC/BTC transaction was down against a small volatility, and the short-term weakness linked the BTC.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 5,916,600 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 20,303,300 yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 2,052.58 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 2539.22 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 31.504 million yuan. There are major differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 286.74TH/s, which was slightly lower than yesterday (291.86TH/s), which was close to the low point of six months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. However, if continuous innovation is low, there is a risk of stamping. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (62,500) was significantly lower than the previous day (9.57 million), lower than the one-month average; the transaction volume on the LTC chain (199.56 million) increased slightly from the previous day (1,517,700), close to the monthly low; The number of currency days destroyed (400.548 million, historically small), increased from the previous day (38.63 million), but the long-term trend has not been destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Yesterday evening, the EOS/BTC trading pair has fallen back. It is now back to the high point of the previous few days, and the short-term performance is weaker.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 62,746,700 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 1.197 million yuan, and the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 68,870,400 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow was 39,739,600 yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 4,488.3 million yuan. There is a big disagreement in the market, with a large net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has increased. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 3.1k, which is +5.03% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of the trading application Newdex is 1.6k, which is +7.65% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 1.6k. Yesterday's change was -12.29%; the number of 24-hour active users of data application Lumeos was 1.2k, which was +8.29% change from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured separately.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to bottom up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Not yet out of the bottom section, there may be a dishwashing action in the short term, and wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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