QKL123 market analysis | The market will turn around now? It’s good to be exhausted! (0726)

Abstract: Yesterday, the BTC went up to $10,000 and then contracted down, and there is the possibility of continuing to explore $9,000. Recently, attention to the impact of the news, the profit is exhausted, the market may turn around in the near future; the short-term market situation tends to change time; in the long run, the BTC shocks upward trend.

According to QKL123 statistics, on July 26, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,855.354 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -3.27%, and the total turnover of 24 hours was 418.31 billion yuan. The total turnover of 24 hours changed – 16.45%, 24-hour market activity has decreased. The market value of BTC accounted for 64.08%, and the market risk aversion is still high, but it has continued to decrease in recent days.

At 11 o'clock, among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-5.76%), EOS had the lowest 24-hour decline (-1.42%); BTC rose 24 hours in -3.56%, LTC 24 hours The price rose by -3.98%, and ETH rose by -2.70% in 24 hours. The USDT rose by +0.28% in 24 hours, with a 24-hour turnover rate of 3.53%, and a slight increase in 24-hour off-exchange capital inflows.

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At 12 o'clock, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 14,382.23 points, 24 hours up and down -3.25%; alternative.me sentiment index was 24, significantly lower than yesterday (42), the market performance changed from fear to extreme fear. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend is slightly lower than yesterday, lower than the average of the past seven days.

Analyst's point of view: Short-term BTC shrinks, there is a possibility of bottoming out again at $9,000; recent focus on the news (July 29 on USDT, July 30, two regulatory hearings), the situation is exhausted This is good, and the possibility of a turning point in the market is also greater.

First, the spot BTC market

24H highest: ¥70307.25 24H minimum: ¥67132.73

Yesterday, the BTC attacked 10,000 US dollars from about 9,600 US dollars. After that, it fell, but the amount of unreleased can shrink, and the air force is obviously weak. In a short period of time, BTC is likely to continue to test the strong support of $9,000, but if the downside continues to shrink, the probability of a turning point in the market will increase.

Fund face

As of 14:22, BTC's net outflow today was 1,293.31 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 86.14 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 159.77 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) The net outflow was 435.19 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 611.49 million yuan. The market willing to increase shipments, mainly based on small and medium-sized singles.

2. Fundamentals Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 279 days

At present, BTC's total network computing power is 66.88 EH/s, a slight increase from yesterday (64.92 EH/s), still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 761,200, which was a rebound from the previous day (718,800), close to the average of three months. Yesterday, the number of BTC coins destroyed was 968. 21 (historical median), which was significantly lower than the previous day (470.472 million, larger value). The action on the previous day's chain was more frequent, but in the near future, there was no concentrated whale in the field, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

24H highest: ¥1568.54 24H minimum: ¥1501.73

After the ETH rebounded from 190 US dollars, the market's up and down volume can shrink, the amplitude gradually shrinks, and there are signs of upward force. However, it is necessary to look at the BTC's direction choice in a short time, and the possibility of further testing the bottom is not ruled out. . The ETH/BTC transaction rose from yesterday's 0.0213 BTC to the current 0.021 BTC, and the volume was shrinking, showing signs of further stabilization. BTC is expected to stabilize after the market is over, and ETH is likely to be relatively strong.

Fund face

As of 14:22, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 287.93 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 25.7 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 12.27 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 98.26 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 176.24 million yuan. The market willing to increase shipments, mainly based on small and medium-sized singles.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of game encryption heroes (2,287) increased or decreased by +0.22% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour total flow of pledge by DAI (12,652 ETH) increased or decreased by -0.49% compared with yesterday, and the 24-hour total flow of trading platform IDEX (1,699 ETH) increased or decreased by -2.04% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour transaction number of the stable currency Paxos Standard (852) increased or decreased by -0.93% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

24H highest: ¥657.94 24H minimum: ¥631.87

LTC fluctuated from yesterday's high of $97, and the amount of the downside continued to shrink. The long and short positions showed a stalemate, and the follow-up trend needed to see the direction of BTC. From the point of view of the LTC/BTC transaction, the station will be re-launched with 0.0094BTC, and the follow-up is expected to continue.

Fund face

As of 14:33, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 399.3 billion yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 81.31 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 8.04 million yuan, and the net is in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan). The outflow of 1.89 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 127.38 million yuan. There are major differences in the market, mainly based on small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 10 days

At present, the total network computing power of LTC is 411.33TH/s, which is higher than yesterday (489.69 TH/s). It is close to the same period of last month, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 72,900, a slight decrease from the previous day (7.28 million), lower than the average of two months. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed was 1052.86 (small historical value), which was higher than the previous day (946.69 million). There was no large whale concentrated selling action outside the field, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

24H highest: ¥32.58 24H minimum: ¥30.92

EOS has experienced a shrinking downward trend since the previous day's big rise. There is still a need for oversold and downside in the short term, but the downside may not be large, and the main direction is BTC. At present, the EOS/BTC transaction is stable at around 0.00045 after encountering resistance and is expected to continue to move upwards after accumulating power.

Fund face

As of 14:17, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 166.51 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 0.2 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 25.24 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 88.63 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 52.64 million yuan. The market willing to increase shipments, but mainly based on small and medium-sized singles.

2. Fundamentals

Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp increased slightly. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Texas Hold'em (1,240) increased or decreased by +0.32% compared with yesterday, the number of active users of entertainment application EOS Royale (640) increased or decreased by +0.00% compared with yesterday; 24 hours of trading platform DEXEOS Total running water (95,670 EOS) increased or decreased by +0.26% from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

At present, BTC is in the short-term partial adjustment stage, and the mad cow market of encrypted assets may come in the next one to two years, and it can be bargained at the bargain. The smart contract platform ETH 2.0 project is in the process of advancement, and it is expected to step out of the independent market in the future. The BTC trading pair of the ATC and DPoS leader EOS of the Aussie Coin is also in the low position of the year, which can be properly configured and bargained on the dips.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

The short-term shocks adjust the situation unchanged, the downside risks and downside space are not large, and the encrypted assets are linked, and the positions can be opened on dips. At present, the proportion of BTCs continues to decrease, and the combined configuration can be biased towards ETH, LTC and EOS.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

In the short term, the BTC uncertainty is not reduced, the resistance is $10,000 and the support is $9,000. Short-term ETH, LTC and EOS performance is relatively strong, see the direction of BTC to move.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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