QKL123 market analysis | The oil war has ended, US stocks financial reports, data are coming, this week's thunder? (0413)

Summary: Bitcoin rebounded weakly, the market continued to dip, and altcoins were relatively weak. Recently, the global economic situation is still bleak. Although the reduction in output is good, it is difficult to get out of the ceiling of liquidity restrictions in the capital market. This week, quarterly reports of US stocks will be released, and the financial institutions' financial reports are worth paying attention to.

At 11 o'clock today, the 8BTCCI broad market index reported 9775.18 points, with a 24-hour increase or decrease of -1.56%, reflecting the market's decline. The Bitcoin Strength Index reported 94.07 points, a 24-hour increase or decrease of + 0.94%, and the relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has weakened ; ChaiNext USDT OTC Premium Index reported 103.25, and the 24-hour increase or decrease was + 0.01%, USDT The OTC premium level remained basically unchanged .

Analyst's point of view:

Last night, OPEC + reached the largest production reduction agreement in history. Among them, the first round of production cuts lasted for two months, and the amount of production cuts starting in May was 9.7 million barrels per day. Against the backdrop of bleak economic prospects and the explosion of global oil inventories, the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia have finally made compromises, and it is expected that the global crude oil production in 2020 will exceed 20 million barrels per day. Under the favorable effect of the supply side, Brent and WTI crude oil rose by about 5% for a short time. However, the demand side is still a black box, dragged down by the global economy, the oil price ceiling will be determined for a period of time in the future, and the market is expected to hover around $ 20 in the first half of the year.

The judgment logic for bitcoin is similar to oil, and the global economic situation determines the recent price limit of bitcoin. After the outbreak of the global new crown epidemic, bitcoin's payment transaction activities and illegal activities have shown a significant decline. Although the market sentiment was high after the 0312 plunge, the rebound was highly limited by the liquidity of global capital markets. After the continuous rebound of US stocks in the past two weeks, it has recovered nearly half of its previous decline, and the global capital market has entered a critical period of trend change.

After the U.S. stocks plunged in March, the Federal Reserve ’s two unprecedented emergency interest rate cuts and unlimited QE backings lie behind the debt crisis. The current situation seems unclear. This week, quarterly financial reports and various economic data of US stocks will be revealed, among which the financial reports of large financial institutions of US stocks are very worthy of attention. Because the financial situation of large US financial institutions is related to the stability of the financial system, which in turn may affect the global economic situation. Think of the collapse of Lehman's huge losses under the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, and this time when US stocks rebounded to a high level, will there be a thunderstorm?

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1. Spot BTC market

From yesterday evening to early morning, BTC rebounded slightly. After the maximum rebound to $ 7,200, it quickly fell back. The amount of short-term release can increase. The net outflow of market funds is obvious, mainly with the escape of retail funds. Today's rebound appeared weak, with a minimum of $ 6,600. The five-day line crossed the ten-day line, and the trend turned downward. See the support situation in a short time, otherwise continue to probe.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH rebounded weakly and then fell back, with a minimum touch of $ 150. The low volume was more obvious, indicating that the Air Force was temporarily suppressed and obtained some short-term support. The follow-up linkage was mainly BTC.

Three, spot BCH market

Since completing the halving, the BCH has dropped by as much as 20%. Yesterday's rebound was relatively small, and it is still in the early stage of the shock platform. The amount of energy released in a short time is not obvious, and it has not fallen below the previous low, which is more likely to oscillate in a short time.

Fourth, spot LTC market

The capital flow in the LTC market is consistently bearish, the downward volume can be more obvious, and the decline is larger, similar to BCH, it came to the previous shock platform. The short-term interval is mainly shocked.

Five, spot EOS market

EOS gained short-term support at $ 2.3, but it did not reverse the downward trend .

Six, spot ETC market

The trend of ETC and EOS is similar, with some support in a short time, but there is no obvious rebound, and the subsequent linkage downside risk is greater.

Seven, analyst strategy

1 . Long-term (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is going bad, the good time for TunCoin's fixed investment can be referred to the hoarding currency index . Smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2 . Midline (January-March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for the market to get out of the bottom in a short time, and those who do not have a heavy position will intervene in batches .

3 . Short-term (1-3 days)

Not yet stabilized, wait and see.

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Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing blockchain global market to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2. Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the indicators of Bitcoin exchange in the entire Token market, and then reflects the competition strength of Bitcoin in the market. It is used to measure the degree of change in the relative price of Bitcoin to the package of Token. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3. USDT OTC discount premium index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means USDT parity. If the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium. If it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

4. Net capital inflow (outflow)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of the global trading platform (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

5. BTC- coin indicator

The coin hoarding indicator is created by Weibo user ahr999, and assists Bitcoin fixed investment users to make investment decisions in combination with the opportunistic strategy. The indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the fitting price of Bitcoin. Generally, when the indicator is lower than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom bargaining), the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable to adopt a fixed investment strategy, the time interval accounts for about 39 %.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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