QKL123 Quote Analysis | Bitstamp is now a large transfer, is a managed transfer BitGo? (1015)

Abstract: In the past 24 hours, the stars and Ripple have driven the market to rebound, and the inflow of funds outside the market has slowed down significantly. Other mainstream currencies are mainly horizontal. Since yesterday, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin have all had large transfers, which is likely to be the wallet finishing action of the trading platform Bitstamp. The short-term selling pressure is less risky.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 15, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,638.76 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +0.68%, the total turnover was 375.59 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +7.65%. Market activity has increased. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (+5.31%), and BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-0.91%). The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11682.06 points, up 24 hours to +1.03%, reflecting a rebound in the broader market.

The Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 92.21 points, up or down -0.72% in 24 hours, indicating that the relative performance of Bitcoin in the whole market was slightly weaker; the Alternative sentiment index was 39, slightly higher than yesterday (37), and the market sentiment remained For fear. The USDT has risen and fallen to -0.36% for 24 hours. The current net outflow of funds today is 8.810 million yuan, which is opposite to yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Discount Index is reported at 100.01, which is up to -1.29% in 24 hours.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 100) has increased significantly from the previous value (peak 76), higher than the median of a month. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Argentina (53), Ghana (49), South Africa (42), Germany (38), Brazil (36) and Switzerland (35). Among them, Argentina's Google search relative value (peak 100) increased significantly from the previous value (peak 2), rising to a new high in the month, the reason is unknown. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 88) has rebounded from the previous value (peak 67), approaching a one-month low.

Analyst's point of view:

Yesterday evening, 3Nxw starting address (marked as Bitstamp cold wallet), passing the 3ECJ starting address (marked as Xapo.com-2 wallet), eventually transferring more than 100,000 bitcoins to the beginning of 3CgK (unmarked) . The 3CgK opening address was created on September 17, 2019. The current bitcoin balance in the address is 111,858.24 BTC (basically this transfer), which is approximately $936,394,793. Yesterday evening, Litecoin also had a similar transfer action. Multiple addresses (marked as wallet: 1096295) were transferred to the beginning M82E address for a total of 745,999 LTC, which was approximately $42,206,129.

According to the trading platform Bitstamp announced on October 09: BitGo will provide asset custody services and provide it with a $100 million insurance protection policy. The platform will begin to transfer assets to BitGo on the 10th. It can be preliminarily speculated that the untagged address (the 3CgK starting address) is likely to be the Bitstamp wallet associated with BitGo's hosting service. Moreover, some media reported that it was suspected that Bitstamp wallet had a large amount of ETH exchanges yesterday. Another note is that Xapo.com is the hosting provider previously acquired by Coinbase.

In summary, according to the current information, the big probability of this big bitcoin transfer is Bitstamp wallet finishing. The large amount of Litecoin money transfer in the chain is also likely to be related to Bittamp wallet finishing, and the short-term risk of selling pressure. Smaller.

First, the spot BTC market

In recent days, the amplitude and quantity of BTCs have tended to shrink, and they have been back and forth. They are now back to a small fluctuation around $8,300, and the possibility of short-term changes is increasing.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 4,359,958,800 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 12,723,800 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 51.64 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 13.770.50 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 11941.40 million. The market has a large net inflow of funds.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 84.33EH/s, which was lower than the previous day, but it was close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed. The number of active addresses on the chain is 599,400, which is still higher than the previous day. The low point in three months; the trading volume on the chain was 618,800, which was higher than the previous day, but it was close to the low point in a month; the number of coins destroyed in the day was 77,839,800 (historically large), a significant increase from the previous day. This is likely to be related to the Bitstamp wallet mentioned above, which is less likely to cause selling pressure in a short period of time and the long-term uptrend is not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, ETH was slightly suppressed by the short position, and the highest price reached 188 US dollars and began to fall back. The ETH/BTC transaction slightly declined after a slight upside, and the short-term performance was slightly stronger.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 163,449,200 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 13.6596 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 5.995 million yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 156.6681 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 1.17 million yuan. There is a divergence in the market, with a net outflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has rebounded. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 3k, 24 hours change +17.7%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 2.8k, 24 hours change + 14.69%; trading application ForkDelta's 24-hour active users 358, 24 hours change -2.98%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC continued to fluctuate slightly, LTC/BTC contraction declined slightly, and short-term performance was weak.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 45.658 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 33.219 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow 2,597.48 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 1,805,300 yuan, the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 36,653,100 yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large outflow of large singles and small singles.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 275.18TH/s, which was slightly higher than yesterday, close to the low of six months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power will decline and it will take some time to recover. However, if the continuous innovation is low, there is a risk of stamping. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (54,300) increased slightly from the previous day, approaching a one-month low; the transaction volume on the LTC chain (329.83 million) increased significantly from the previous day, higher than the monthly average; the number of coins destroyed (412 million, The historical value is larger than that of the previous day. It is suspected that the Bitstamp wallet has a large amount of mutual turnover, and the possibility of long-term trend being destroyed is small.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS continued to fluctuate slightly around US$3.1, and the short-term linkage was dominated by the broader market.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 19,016,600 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 2008.17 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 2,311,100 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 455,700 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 37.307 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has slightly rebounded. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2.9k, which is -0.41% compared with yesterday; the trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users is 2k, which is +36.32% change from yesterday; the quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users is 2k, which is changed from yesterday. -5.09%; the number of 24-hour active users of the data application Lumeos is 1.2k, which is +0.17% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS faucet EOS is close to the low of the year and can be configured separately.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to make a short-term bottom-up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Not yet out of the wide range of shocks, continue to wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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