2024 Bitcoin Price Prediction Insights from Major Banks and Hedge Funds

2024 Bitcoin Price Predictions by Banks and Hedge Funds

Author: Jake Simmons Translation: Huohuo/Baihua Blockchain

Due to the expectations of giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco for Bitcoin ETFs, as well as the expectation of the halving in April 2024, the predictions for the price of Bitcoin next year show a large range of fluctuations. From JPMorgan to Standard Chartered Bank, here are some notable predictions for 2024:

1. LianGuaintera Capital: $150,000

LianGuaintera Capital, led by Dan Morehead, predicted in the August “Blockchain Letter” that the price of Bitcoin after the halving in 2024 could rise to $147,843. They believe that using the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio, the price model shows that the valuation of Bitcoin relative to its scarcity will become more apparent.

Specifically, LianGuaintera Capital stated, “The 2020 halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 43% compared to the previous halving. Its impact on price is as high as 23%.” Taking history as a reference, this may indicate that the price will rise from $35,000 before the halving to $148,000 after the halving. However, not all Bitcoin supporters agree, as they have recently witnessed failed predictions based on this model.

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2. Standard Chartered Bank: $120,000

In a recent research report in July, Standard Chartered Bank presented a bullish outlook on the potential trajectory of Bitcoin. The UK multinational bank currently expects the value of Bitcoin to rise to $50,000 by the end of this year and potentially surge to $120,000 by the end of 2024. This revised forecast by Standard Chartered Bank marks an improvement compared to their previous forecast in April, where they projected a maximum price of $100,000 for Bitcoin.

The bank’s upward revision is supported by several determining factors. Notably, one of the main reasons for the potential price increase is the ongoing banking crisis. Additionally, the report reveals that the profitability of Bitcoin miners is a key factor influencing the price trajectory. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Foreign Exchange and Digital Asset Research, emphasized the importance of miners and pointed out, “The reason for doing this is that miners play a crucial role not only in maintaining the Bitcoin ledger but also in determining the net supply of newly mined bitcoins.”

3. JPMorgan: $45,000 per Bitcoin

One of the world’s leading investment banks, JPMorgan, expects more limited growth for Bitcoin, with a projected increase to $45,000. This forecast is influenced by the surge in gold prices. Historically, the price trends of Bitcoin and gold have shown correlation, and with gold recently surpassing the $2,000 per ounce mark, it strengthens JPMorgan’s conservative view on Bitcoin.

In a detailed report in May, JPMorgan strategists explained, “With gold prices above $2,000, the value of gold held for investment purposes outside central banks is about [$3 trillion]. This implies that the price of Bitcoin is $45,000, assuming BTC achieves a similar status to gold among private investors.”

4. Matrixport: $125,000 by the end of 2024

In July of this year, the famous crypto service provider Matrixport predicted that the price of Bitcoin could soar to $125,000 by the end of 2024. This optimistic outlook is based on historical price patterns and a significant signal: Bitcoin recently broke $31,000 in mid-2024, reaching its highest level in over a year. Historically, such milestones mark the end of a bear market and the beginning of a strong bull market.

By comparing these patterns with historical data from 2015, 2019, and 2020, Matrixport estimates potential returns of up to 123% within 12 months and up to 310% within 18 months. This means that the potential price of Bitcoin within these respective time frames is $65,539 and $125,731.

5. Tim Draper: $250,000

Famous venture capitalist Tim Draper remains highly optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. Although his previous prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by June 2023 did not come true, he still holds a positive long-term view on this cryptocurrency. In an interview with Bloomberg TV in July, Draper attributed recent regulatory actions in the United States (such as actions against Coinbase and BN) to the short-term downward trend of BTC.

Despite these challenges, Draper still believes in the transformative power of Bitcoin and its ability to reach $250,000, although it may be by 2024 or 2025. His confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to fundamentally change finance and maintain its long-term value remains unwavering.

6. Berenberg: $56,630 when Bitcoin halves

German investment bank Berenberg adjusted its forecast in July, expecting Bitcoin to reach $56,630 by April 2024. This upward adjustment is supported by improved market sentiment, attributed to expectations of the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 and the increasing interest shown by prominent institutional participants.

The Berenberg analyst team, led by the insightful Mark LianGuailmer, emphasizes that they expect a significant appreciation in the value of Bitcoin in the coming months. This forecast is driven by two key factors: the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event and the growing enthusiasm shown by important institutions.

Berenberg reiterated its buy rating on Microstrategy stock, highlighting their confidence in the market. The bank has revised Microstrategy’s stock price target from $430 to $510, citing the company’s high valuation of BTC and improved prospects for its software business.

7. Blockware Solutions: $400,000

In an analysis titled “2024 Halving Analysis: Understanding the Market Cycle and Opportunities Created by the Halving” in August, Blockware Intelligence thoroughly explored the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $400,000 in the next halving period (expected in 2024/25).

One core factor identified in the research is the role of halving in shaping the Bitcoin market cycle. The report claims that miners bear a significant portion of the selling pressure as they receive newly minted bitcoins, most of which need to be sold to cover operational costs. However, the halving event helps eliminate inefficient miners, thereby reducing selling pressure.

The study emphasizes that as halving causes a decrease in supply, demand becomes the primary determining factor of Bitcoin market prices. Historical data shows that there is usually a surge in demand after the halving event. Market participants are aware of the supply-side dynamics brought about by halving and are prepared to deploy capital at the first sign of an upward trend, which could lead to a substantial price increase. This surge in demand is particularly evident in current on-chain data, validating the positive sentiment surrounding the halving event.

8. Summary

In addition to these notable predictions, there are numerous other price predictions for BTC, ranging from Cathie Wood’s (ARK Invest) ambitious $1 million forecast to Mike Novogratz’s (Galaxy Digital) $500,000, Tom Lee’s (Fundstrat Global) $180,000, Robert Kiyosaki’s (Rich Dad) $100,000, Adam Back’s $100,000, and Arthur Hayes’s $70,000 predictions, highlighting the different perspectives on the future value of Bitcoin.

As of the time of writing (September 26, 2023), the Bitcoin trading price is $26,286.

Bitcoin 1-day chart below 23.6% Fib | Data source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

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