Analyst Bitcoin ETF may be approved in early 2024.

Bitcoin ETF approval possible in early 2024.

Author: Katherine Ross, blockworks Translation: Shanooba, LianGuai

Bernstein estimates that the current size of the cryptocurrency fund management industry is between about $45 billion and $50 billion, and they believe that the asset management scale of this industry is expected to exceed $500 billion in the next five years.

Analysts in the research report stated that they believe the cryptocurrency industry will transition from a small-scale industry with a scale of about $50 billion to a formal and regulated asset management industry with assets of $50 billion to $65 billion in the next five years. This growth will be driven by demand from investment advisors, wealth and private banking products, as well as the ability to conveniently access Bitcoin ETFs in direct brokerage accounts.

This means that the share of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the market value will reach 10%, while the share of liquid cryptocurrency hedge funds will reach 5-6%. Traditional heavyweight companies such as BlackRock and Fidelity have already submitted Bitcoin ETF filings, increasing the chances of Bitcoin ETF approval. In addition, two courts have stood on the side of cryptocurrency companies in cryptocurrency company cases or partially sided with Ripple in the Ripple case.

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In the Grayscale case, a panel of judges has asked the SEC to review Grayscale’s application to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a Bitcoin ETF. Therefore, Bernstein now states that the chances of approval by early 2024 have greatly increased, so they are optimistic about the risk-return after that.

The SEC has postponed a series of Bitcoin ETF decisions until the end of October. Analysts believe that the SEC will not “fabricate another reason for refusal,” but may take a “middle ground” and accept supervisory sharing agreements signed with companies such as Coinbase, as these proposals are made by traditional fund managers and the agreements are signed with regulated exchanges such as Nasdaq.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission stated at the time: “The Commission believes that designating a longer period for action on the proposed rule change is appropriate so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein.” It has postponed decisions on companies such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark, Bitwise, and VanEck.

After the delay, Franklin Templeton announced a bid for a spot Bitcoin ETF. In addition, stablecoins have brought tokenization opportunities through payment adoption.

They further explained: These use cases mainly involve cryptocurrency trading and the DeFi market, which are not deeply integrated with mainstream payment platforms and networks. We believe that the real opportunity for stablecoins lies in the transition from the offshore and unregulated cryptocurrency field to the onshore, regulated, and more directly related to mainstream payment and global settlement utility fields.

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