Bloomberg Analyst Probability of Spot BTC ETF Approval Soars from 1% to 65%

Bloomberg analyst predicts 65% chance of BTC ETF approval, up from 1%

Source: bitcoinist; Compiled by: Blockchain Knight

According to analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg Intelligence, the probability of the approval of a physical Bitcoin ETF has increased to 65% based on recent industry developments. This is a significant increase compared to the 1% probability they gave a few months ago.

“Based on recent events and new information, Eric Balchunas and I officially raise the probability of the approval of a physical Bitcoin ETF to 65%,” Seyffart stated on Twitter. “This is higher than the 50% a few weeks ago and the 1% a few months ago.”

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There are multiple factors driving this revision in the prediction, including recent speeches by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, the development of leading digital asset management company Grayscale, and the committee’s tacit approval of Coinbase’s BTC trading.

Seyffart wrote, “In our view, the probability of launching a physical Bitcoin ETF this year has risen to 65% due to a series of events, including Gary Gensler downplaying his role at the SEC, the committee’s approval of Coinbase’s BTC trading, and Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC.”

Gary Gensler recently downplayed his role at the SEC in an interview, emphasizing that he is only one of the four commissioners and cannot independently decide the approval of a physical Bitcoin ETF.

This move by Gensler to reduce his influence within the SEC may indicate a more lenient regulatory environment for a physical Bitcoin ETF in the future.

In addition, Bloomberg analysts Seyffart and Balchunas believe that the SEC’s attitude towards Coinbase and Grayscale could have a significant impact on the crypto industry.

As Seyffart stated, the focus is currently on the legal dispute between Grayscale and the SEC.

Seyffart tweeted, “The key right now is that if Grayscale wins the lawsuit, it could prepare for a wave of SEC approvals in the fourth quarter. It all depends on how long Gensler wants to fight here.”

Just a few days ago, Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg highlighted a recent case. In the case, the SEC lost in the Washington, D.C. Circuit Court, and the court described the SEC’s orders as “arbitrary and capricious.”

This could be favorable for Grayscale as they also used similar legal terms in their lawsuit against the SEC. It’s worth noting that Chief Judge Sri Srinivasan is one of the three judges who ruled on the Grayscale case.

Although recent developments have created an optimistic outlook, it must be noted that approval still carries a significant level of unpredictability.

Seyffart added, “BlackRock and Coinbase SSA have completely changed the analysis of all physical Bitcoin ETFs, not to mention the XRP event which is less significant but still relevant. We will update our views and opinions based on new information.”

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