Gartner reports: Blockchain business is facing a test, the industry is still dark

Text | Interchain Pulse · Black Pearl

Gartner divides the different business of the blockchain business into the five development stages of innovation drive period, expected expansion period, trough period, recovery period and maturity stage in 2019's latest blockchain business development regular period forecasting table, and predicts different businesses. The time to reach a mature stable period. Mutual chain pulse sorting related data, interpreting the status quo of different business developments and analyzing future trends. Most of the current blockchain business is still in the climbing stage, and no business has entered the mature stage; the encrypted digital currency project is separated from the application project, lacking actual value support; and a large number of application projects will soon enter the development trough period……

Partial blockchain entry into the inflection point digital asset trading has transitioned to recovery

According to Gartner's data as of July 2019, most of the current business is still in the period of innovation-driven climbing, including DAO decentralized organizations, stable coins, games, retail and other 18 kinds of businesses; expected expansion period, low period In the recovery period and maturity period, there are 11, 7, 1, and 0 businesses respectively; and 65% of the business still takes 5 to 10 years to enter the stable period.

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(Cartography: Inter-Chain Pulse Data Source: Gartner Segmentation Online Business is divided according to the latter interval)

The development of the inter-chain pulse observation blockchain segment is basically consistent with the Gartner prediction trend. In the innovation-driven head business sector, there are public utilities, oil and gas, and retail; supply chain and distributed ledger business are in the inflection point; the government blockchain and alliance chain peaks have passed and entered the trough; Asset trading is entering a recovery period.

In July 2019, the blockchain manager index (BMI) jointly launched by the Inter-Chain Pulse and the Central University of Finance and Economics consensus economics group was 67.1, an increase of 0.3 from 66.8 last month, indicating that the industry expansion trend is obvious, blockchain The momentum of the business recovery period is revealed. The June BMI also pointed out that digital asset prices are a key driver of industry development.

According to statistics from the Mutual Chain Pulse Institute, from January to August 2019, there were 58 financing incidents in the field of cryptocurrency exchanges. More than 70 investment institutions have invested in cryptocurrency exchanges, only in the month of August. Nearly 30 investment institutions have led or invested in the field of cryptocurrency exchanges. Distributed Capital, Pantera Capital, and Bean Capital invested in three cryptocurrency exchanges from January to August.

The cryptocurrency trading market is still undergoing further fermentation. Now, some investment institutions and public chains have begun to build their own exchanges. For example, Node Capital has recently incubated the GOKO exchange.

In the Gartner forecast, distributed ledgers, ICOs, and encrypted digital currencies are in the transition phase of the recovery period.

Distributed ledger business With the recent boom in the concept of DeFi, many companies have entered the market. ICOs business includes ICO, IEO, STO and other financing methods. Previously, the ICO business has experienced a downturn due to stricter policies. The peak of ICO is in 2018, and in May 2018, data from inter-chain pulse monitoring showed that ICO financing totaled 1.909 billion US dollars. In December 2018, this figure fell to 196 million US dollars. In February this year, it fell to $0.56, a drop of 97.07% from the peak in 2018.

However, as the United States, South Korea, Japan, and European countries have successively incorporated ICO into the regulatory system, ICO development is expected to return to the right track. In July of this year, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the decentralized Internet Protocol company Blockstack to issue $28 million in tokens under Reg A+ rules, the first SEC-approved token-issuing project. With the establishment of regulatory policies and the actual implementation of supervision, the ICOs market will pick up.

Encrypted digital currency is separated from application projects, and the industry is not yet coming.

Inter-chain pulse observation shows that while the digital asset trading business is developing, it is obviously out of touch with the application-oriented business. It is difficult for digital assets to have actual assets anchored and the value is empty. Most of the application business will face the test of the trough, and the industry has not yet arrived.

One of the major manifestations of the lack of real value support for digital asset trading is that only the market value of Bitcoin has performed well. Other mainstream currencies and the ACO have faced a sharp decline in market value and are difficult to pick up. The prosperity of digital asset trading faces the threat of a bubble economy.

Mutual chain pulse August statistics show that the total market value of the global altcoin has dropped from a peak of 204.5 billion in 2018 to about 90 billion US dollars, and the market value has evaporated by more than 80%. As of the second quarter of 2019, 94% of the cryptocurrencies in the world's top 50 cryptocurrencies were falling, with an average return on investment of -27.6%.

Digital currency/assets must have a well-established value anchor that can be used as a hedging tool or value measure. Mutual chain pulse statistics in August, now there are already 6 kinds of coins with initial value anchoring. For example, Bitcoin anchors macroeconomic risks to a certain extent; Litecoin anchors bitcoin value; Ettafang anchors the value created by developers in Ethernet networks; Monroe anchors in dark nets, black market applications…

Usually, the digital currency on the public chain can anchor its own application scenarios, operating mechanisms and other aspects of the characteristics. However, if the application blockchain business cannot keep up with the development of the transaction, the technical ecology and the public chain are difficult to provide better value anchor support, and the digital currency will have large value fluctuations, which is why most digital currencies fall again. The reason for the fall.

However, due to its limited development, application-based services are also difficult to provide appropriate value support for digital assets.

Most application-oriented businesses are still in the development investment phase. Although some businesses have completed the completion of multiple projects, there is still a long way to go from large-scale commercial and revenue. Once the investment in development capital is reduced, these application-oriented businesses will face the dual problems of development and landing. Mutual chain pulse surveys revealed that the pure blockchain companies in the 2019 semi-annual report, such as Taiyiyun and Polylink, have not yet made a profit. In the early blockchain "star" enterprises, because of the difficulty in landing technology, half of them have invested in the "public chain" and borrowed money to make a living.

However, there are still a number of new businesses that are starting to take off, such as blockchain socialization, DAO organization, blockchain and Internet of Things, artificial intelligence integration, etc., and emerging areas are trying to promote the simultaneous development of value anchoring and asset transactions. The new BMI index finally pointed out that, in a comprehensive way, the blockchain industry expansion momentum in July shifted from the rise in digital asset prices to business expansion. With the maturity of blockchain technology, as well as the implementation of the policy and environment, the blockchain application business will eventually enter the stable development stage.

Gartner predicts that the distributed ledger business will enter a stable development phase within two years, and the encrypted asset custody, smart contract, blockchain incentive/honest model will also mature within two to five years.

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