Is there a future for Bitcoin? Is the fundamentals of the blockchain industry stable? Disciple Ren Zeping tells you the answer
The rapid development of the blockchain continues to gain the attention of outsiders. On March 27th, Shuangjie Ren, a disciple of Ren Zeping and founder of Tongzheng Tong Research Institute, reviewed and summarized the development process and experience of the Internet era in the second session of "Basic Blockchain Fundamentals in the Eyes of Traditional Brokers" The lesson pointed out the current stage of blockchain development and the challenges it faces. At the same time, he also analyzed the correlation between the price of bitcoin and traditional capital markets, and the digital gold attribute of bitcoin.
Looking forward to the future, Song Shuangjie believes that blockchain as an emerging technology has very healthy fundamentals in terms of penetration rate, industry's position in the economy, industrial policies, capital market performance, and business models. This is also his role in Guotai Junan, Oriental After Fortune, Founder Securities and other institutions engaged in investment analysis, investment research, and asset management, as a traditional brokerage firm, they resolutely invested in token economic research, and in the past two years continued to cultivate the power of blockchain.
Characteristics of Internet development
The Internet originated in 1960, and in 1971, the first killer application of the Internet was email. In 1990, the first Internet page was born. In 1994, the Internet entered the era of portal search, which solved the problem of interaction between people and information. In 2000, after the burst of the Internet bubble, a large number of social products were born, solving the problem of interaction between people and goods and people, and the Internet entered the era of social networking from the portal era. After 2010, the mobile Internet broke out, the Internet became infrastructure, online and offline integration became consensus, and the Internet entered the era of mobile Internet.
Looking back on the development of the Internet, we can summarize the following characteristics:
First, it is difficult to assess the potential of early emerging technologies. When e-mails appeared, ordinary people couldn't use or even understand them. When the web page appeared, only geeks and computer professionals understood the code, and the cost of connecting to the Internet was extremely high, and it was considered "no future inventions."
Second, a large number of early business models were falsified. For example, the e-commerce we are seeing has been around since the 1990s, but it has closed down.
Third, infrastructure restricts the development of emerging technologies. There is a lot of discussion about VR / AR now. In fact, in the 90's, there were already related products on the Internet that were trying to do this part, and eventually they closed down.
Development stages of the blockchain
The blockchain has very strong financial attributes. With reference to the logic of the financial market, the blockchain is divided into 4 cycles according to the price cycle.
The first cycle : March 2010 to November 2011, a total of 610 days. The iconic event was the Bitcoin pizza transaction, and Bitcoin's trading function appeared, and it was gradually recognized by more people from a very niche market.
The second cycle : November 2011 to August 2015, a total of 1377 days. As the price of bitcoin soared, which pushed up the first sprout of the blockchain industry, a variety of altcoins with various Bitcoin models appeared.
The third cycle : from August 2015 to December 2018. Many people pay attention to Bitcoin and blockchain, and believe that blockchain can change the world and create an Internet of value that is equal to everyone. At this time, a large number of decentralized applications appeared.
Three rules of BTC price (blockchain) cycle:
First, the BTC bull-bear cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. Secondly, the BTC price volatility becomes smaller as the market value increases. Once again, the innovation led by BTC is constantly evolving and is more recognized by the mainstream. More and more countries recognize that blockchain has reflected its unique value in multiple fields. The government gradually incorporates digital tokens into supervision. More and more agree with BTC.
The main challenge facing the blockchain: The blockchain is currently in a transition phase from 2.0 (cryptocurrency + smart contract) to 3.0 (distributed value internet). Facing the challenges of ternary paradox, regulation, popularity and ease of use.
Digital gold expires?
Bitcoin is called digital gold, but it has fallen more recently than gold, so everyone is increasingly questioning the function of bitcoin digital gold.
In fact, BTC is a risk asset rather than a safe-haven asset , and the correlation between the price of BTC and the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index) is getting higher and higher.
From the perspective of value reserve attributes , the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is increasing, and the two are in the same fluctuation relationship. However, by mid-2019 and early 2020, the prices of bitcoin and gold have diverged considerably.
The reasons for the differences in 2019 are as follows: ① BTC has a relatively high increase in the early part of 2019. As the benefits are exhausted, the short-term rise is difficult to sustain. ② The history of BTC is still short, and market recognition and acceptance are still lower than gold. ③ The influencing factors of the BTC market are different from gold.
The reasons for the differences in early 2020 are as follows: ① The size of the crypto asset market is relatively small and has limited impact on traditional finance. ② BTC risk aversion is still to be tested further.
The reasons for the collapse of Bitcoin:
On the evening of March 12, the cryptocurrency market plummeted. BTC quickly dropped from $ 7,000 to $ 5,500 in 10 minutes. The reasons are: ① Affected by the epidemic, the world may already be in an economic crisis. ② The condition of BTC "Digital Gold" is challenged. ③ Depletion of liquidity and failure of safe-haven assets. ④ The ecological environment of the digital asset market is poor.
Emerging technology fundamentals
All information technology development does not happen overnight.
From the perspective of penetration rate , the number of Bitcoin addresses is gradually increasing, and the penetration rate of US digital currency investors has increased from 7.95% in 2018 to 14.4% in 2019.
From the perspective of market capitalization , Bitcoin's market value is 110 billion US dollars. Compared with A shares and the NYSE, there is still a lot of room for development.
Judging from the status of the industry in the economy , Bitcoin 's status in the economy is not high, and there is still huge development prospects.
From the perspective of industrial policies , since the end of 2016, the central unit has issued more than 40 policies related to the application of blockchain technology. After the collective study of the development status and trends of blockchain technology by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, China ’s blockchain support Policies are even more intensive.
From the perspective of the performance of the capital market , the overall trend of global blockchain financing is growing.
From a business model perspective , a business model with continuous cash flow has been formed, such as mining machine manufacturers, exchanges, and other technological and industrial innovations are also moving forward.
The above is a summary of the live lecture content, the full version of the course can be watched: http://t.cn/A6Z4zmz3
At this point, from March 23 to March 27, the second phase of the Babbitt Industrial Course officially ended. Throughout the course, 5 people from Zhang Nan, vice president of Canaan Technology, Huang Lingbo, partner of distributed capital, Tao Rongqi, founder of X-Order, Cai Yan, managing director of NGC Ventures, and Song Shuangjie, founder of Tongtongtong Research Institute, etc. Of the blockchain industry and the financial capital of the traditional capital market, shared the capital market operation laws, investment mindset, market opportunities, challenges and countermeasures behind the blockchain and finance from different dimensions, taking you through the block The second pulse of the Governor of Chain and Finance stands on the forefront of the times.
Lesson 1: " Capital Market History of the " Blockchain First Share "
Lesson 2: " Distributed Investment Psychology "
Lesson 3: " Crypto Asset Investment Practice: Graph Network Data "
Lesson 4: " NGC's 24/7 Investment Strategy "
Lesson 5: " Blockchain Fundamentals in the Eyes of Traditional Brokers "