QKL123 Quote Analysis | Libra will replace Ethereum? Unable to help themselves! (1114)

Abstract: Recently, the main currency has shown a shrinking shock, and it is more likely to change in a short period of time. Compared with Ethereum, as a super-sovereign Libra stable currency, there is much greater resistance in supervision.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 14, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,709.925 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -0.23%, the total turnover was 449.506 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -5.40%. Market activity has declined. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12,342.34 points, a 24-hour rise to -0.38%, reflecting a decline in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index reported 91.99 points, a 24-hour up-and-down of -0.14%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market was slightly Weakened; the Alternative sentiment index was 41, a slight increase from yesterday (38), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-3.16%), and BNB had the largest increase in 24 hours (+1.10%). The USDT has risen and fallen to +0.15% in 24 hours. The current net outflow of funds today is 17.3015 million yuan, which is lower than yesterday. USDC has a 24-hour up/down of +0.23%. The current net outflow of funds today is 868,800 yuan, which is opposite to yesterday. Turn; ChaiNext USDT off-market discount premium index reported 99.57, 24 hours up and down to -0.40%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 95) has increased from the previous value (peak 82), approaching the one-month average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (44), South Africa (42), Austria (38), Germany (38), Switzerland (37) and Panama (34). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 60) has fallen back from the previous value (peak 68), approaching the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

Ethereum is the representative of the current DApp development platform and one of the important infrastructures for decentralized finance. The Libra project led by Facebook also tried to build a blockchain development infrastructure, which was advanced in the form of a coalition chain and will be transformed into a public chain in the future. Although the underlying technologies are quite different, they all adopt an open source model, allowing developers to participate in iterations. In the long run, there is a competitive relationship between the two.

However, an important difference between Libra and Ethereum in design is that the former is not an endogenous cryptographic asset, but a package of anchored assets. A series of stable coins that anchor legal currency or national debt, although overcoming the price volatility of cryptographic assets (such as BTC, ETH), this design above the sovereign currency may affect the implementation of monetary policy in various countries (special In the case of being adopted on a large scale, it may even result in the loss of monetary sovereignty.

At present, the Libra project has been opposed in European countries such as Germany and France, and the United States is still questioning. Although the Libra Association also responded, such as: the maximum size of the reserve will not exceed 200 billion US dollars, the reserve will not affect the monetary policy of central banks; work with regulators to resolve compliance issues such as anti-money laundering. However, the Libra Association still has the power of “super-sovereignty”, such as: deciding how to allocate “a basket of currencies”; deciding whether to eliminate or increase a certain currency.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, BTC continued to show a downward trend, and now it is oscillating around the support level of $8,600.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 4,985,157,500 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 7.9068 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 144.9952 million yuan, the middle single (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 4,361,210 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 90,437,600 yuan. The market is divided, with a net outflow of medium-sized funds.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of the BTC network was 78.77EH/s, which was significantly lower than the previous day, which was close to the three-month low; the number of active addresses on the chain was 743,800, which was higher than the previous day and higher than the one-month average; The trading volume was 1,068,500, a slight increase from the previous day, higher than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed was 36,930,500 (the historical median), a significant increase from the previous day, and there was a certain risk of selling pressure in a short time.

Second, the spot ETH market

In a short time, ETH continues to oscillate around 186, and the amount and amplitude are further shrunk. The short-term change may be larger; the ETH/BTC transaction is slightly oscillating upward, and relatively short-term relatively strong.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 21,118,200 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 4,813,700 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 34,872,700 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 117.556 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 88.659 million yuan. There is a divergence in the market, with a net outflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased significantly. Game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 3.1k, 24 hours change + 13.49%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.8k, 24 hours change +38.48%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24-hour active users The number is 1k, 24 hours change -0.30%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Since the previous day's shock, LTC has come to the support level of 58 US dollars today. It is currently short-term and small-volume but has not fallen below, and it is relatively weak in a short time.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 45,079,780 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 39.833 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 12.7483 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 305.448 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 93.568 million yuan. The market is consistently bearish, and the net outflow of medium-sized funds is mostly.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 185.16TH/s, a slight decrease from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (53,600) dropped significantly from the previous day, approaching a one-month low; the number of coins destroyed was 12.6966 million (historically small), and the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Since yesterday, EOS has continued to shrink, and the possibility of short-term changes has further increased.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 4,051.6 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 454,300 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 251.188 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 12.458 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 45.17 million yuan. There is a big divergence in the market, and the main force begins to see more, with a small net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined slightly, which is related to the continuous congestion of the network in recent days. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 1.7k, which is +0.53% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of the trading application Newdex is 924, which is +2.44% change from yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users using Dice is 344, which is changed from yesterday. -26.96%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial retreat. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin returns to the 200-day moving average, and those who do not have a strong position are bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

There may be a change in the short-term, and continue to wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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