V Shenfa Bo: What should the correct speculative posture be?

The digital currency in these two days was calm and there was not much turmoil. Compared to the fresh energy of last week, it seems that everyone has quieted down. However, the content released by V God and the Chinese government has caused a lot of heated discussion. On April 3, V God released the only blog in 2019, "On Collusion," which means "conspiracy." Then, the National Development and Reform Commission of China issued the “Guidelines for the Guidance of the Industrial Structure Adjustment Guideline” on April 8th, and the eliminated industries included virtual currency “mining”.

It was also the same day that Korea held the blockchain forum on the Deconomy. V God Vitalic Butrin debated with Ruriel Rubini, known as the "Dr. Doom". Roubini once tweeted that "Vitalik Butrin is a dictator" and pointed out that "the field of cryptocurrency is a system more centralized than North Korea." It is said that cryptocurrency prices are too volatile, inefficient, low in scalability, market prices are easy to manipulate, and there are endless market frauds and hacking attacks.

• The ultimate way out of cryptocurrency exchanges: decentralization (below)
• Ethereum price analysis on April 11
• Bitcoin price analysis on April 11

The ridiculousness of Roubini is not that he attacks the digital currency, but that he covers the essence of the traditional financial market. The stock market, foreign exchange market, and futures market all over the world are the same. There is no one in the capital market, and only who is in the game. Roubini is so smart and won't know the rules of the game. So when you see the big guys attacking the digital currency, everyone smiles. Capital is very cruel, everyone in Ali likes it? Ma Yun is the national father. How does he play in the capital market?

Ali's Hong Kong stock market went public in November 2007, rising from 13.5 yuan to 41.8 yuan. Through a variety of good news all the way to ship, directly to the stock price to 3 yuan. Going up a little bit, when the price was suppressed to 8 yuan in 2011, privatization was initiated. Finally, in 2012, the price was successfully returned to 13.5 yuan, and all stocks were repurchased. Then, in 2014, US stocks regained their IPOs with a market value of 30 times. In five years, I earned a spread of 13.5-41.8, earned five years of funds, and then sucked the chips. Two years later, I told the world that I would like to continue playing 30 times. Everyone actually recognized it. Is this story enough bloody? Not enough to plunder? Not enough cruel? Is it listening to the taste of digital currency? At the very least, in the capital market, he is successful.

There is no right or wrong in capital. If you are a wolf entrepreneur, a reaper, or a cognitive person, the capital market is a paradise; if you are a solid honest person, don’t listen to the suggestions of stock critics and fund managers, or even It is the opinion of some big brothers. Study hard and strengthen your knowledge.

This is a casino and I am willing to gamble and lose. I won a happy and happy, the flags are fluttering outside, and the red flag is not going home. I lost a person crying, don’t blame others, silently wounded and started again.

Many friends in these days have added my WeChat because of my article. A lot of people have asked me what will happen to Hebrian in the future, what will happen to the price of HYN. I have been silent for a long time and I don't know how to respond. One is that I really don't know what the price will be. This is the result of the long and short game given by the market. I can't decide it. The other, I think, is still too early. Any guessing of price behavior is actually inaccurate in the short term and can only be measured in the long run.

This reminds me of a story that I told you to tell me. I am a son of a world top 500 company. I often participate in some dinners with his father. In the dinner, there are often various bosses asking him if his father's stock will rise. Generally, at this time, when the wine is over thirty years and it is a bunch of big bosses, his father will of course be excited to say: Is this still asking? At such a low price, don't hurry up!

The big boss was also excited. I thought to myself, even the chairman said, it must be an opportunity, and quickly rushed to the bottom! As a result, it was copied on a mountainous stage. Every time there is such a meal, there will always be such a situation. But you are also embarrassed to ask the chairman that he has been cut off the leek. They are all amnesty, and they will not be able to fight for a sentence.

Later, when I was young, I concluded with me: You think, my father is the chairman of a Fortune 500 group and has numerous listed companies at home and abroad. He does not do the first-line market, how can he know the rise and fall of the stock price? So when someone asks the stock price of a listed company, he should only answer you to buy it. The chairman of the board is doing this thing, flickering the capital market. Is he as the chairman of the board to look at his own stock? How did it become the world's top 500?

So really want to know the trend of a certain stock, you have to ask those real-line research analysts, they are studying the market every day, only they can feel the fluctuation of the capital market wave. Of course, whether they are written in the research report sent to the public is another matter.

Going back to the digital currency market, the Chinese government is now phasing out mining and I think it is the right choice. Look at the price of bitcoin should not ask Satoshi Satoshi, but should look at the people who study it, its opponents and people who are interested in their own interests, such as China. After all, the energy consumed by PW algorithms around the world now exceeds the electricity consumed by a country in Ireland. Mining should not be the competition for power consumption in the end, and should be placed on the competition for chip development. This is also the direction that Bit China is looking for now.

On the other hand, the biggest holder of Bitcoin is the US government, and the Chinese government does not need to have too much enthusiasm for Bitcoin. This war is particularly like the battle between the British and the Ming Dynasty, which was played 150 years ago. It’s just that today, the country’s development of blockchain technology is very clear. It is a smart way to curb high-energy POWs and gradually shift Bitcoin mining pools overseas to support more advanced technologies such as POS or updated consensus mechanisms.

After the consensus mechanism of the update came out, did communism be realized? The ideal is always there, if it is realized. Even if China has cheaper electricity, it should be used to support the development of AI, big data, robotics, and smart manufacturing, rather than supporting a technology that relies on energy consumption.

The POW consensus mechanism of Bitcoin is that the working class united to fight the world together, and later developed into a trade union, that is, a large mining pool. When it comes to the POS stage, it is the time of the capitalists. The wealth tends to be strong and the weak is weak. This also justifies what Jesus said: When a person is rich, he should be given more and make him richer. When a person is poor, he should be deprived of his only.

But this is the trend of historical development. History has come to capitalist society and socialist society. In the future, there will also be a “POS” POS pool, which is a leasing or crowdfunding business. Small ETH holders can join together to become a large mining pool. A new technology will drive a new market development.

Since ancient times, human beings have been able to collaborate on a large scale and stand out from the many creatures on the planet. One of the most important factors is that humans can reach a consensus. Without consensus, we cannot form the power of system cooperation. There are many reasons for the emergence of consensus, some from cultural identity, and some from national machines. For example, the currency of the statement requires the endorsement of the country's credit. The birth of Bitcoin has given us a successful example of a self-running network. Through a consensus algorithm, encryption, peer-to-peer network and reward mechanism, an autonomous community is formed, which can form a trust that is not achieved through the central organization, and finally achieve peer-to-peer value circulation.

The core value of the blockchain, I think is the Enforcible Consensue, which is the consensus of enforcement. It is the decentralized agreement production value, and then it is circulated through the digital currency as the carrier of the data, and finally enforced through the network, forming a stable consensus force.

So what exactly is digital currency investors investing in?

The ultimate investment of all investors is "this value will appreciate in the future."

In turn, I ask everyone another question: If there are aliens in the world, what should humans use to reach a consensus with them? The answer should be bitcoin, because the core physics law of the atomic universe is the conservation rate of energy, and energy is the consensus of the entire universe. Therefore, Bitcoin is essentially a process of increasing negative entropy. By consuming a lot of computing power, it excretes energy into the universe, and thus obtains a stable and orderly data. This is Bitcoin.

The consensus that PoW enforces is to generate a stable and orderly data set by consuming energy. Because there is no other way to solve the problem, it is by calculation. If we look back from now on, surely everyone wants to use as many miners as possible to mine as much bitcoin as possible. But this is a "paradox" that is impossible. Because if there is a digital currency that can be attacked by 51% in the early days, then this digital currency will not become a "bitcoin". And it happens that because "bitcoin" didn't know what to do with it in the early days, it was just a group of geeks who played on their own, so it turned it into "bitcoin." Walked through the most primitive stage.

Therefore, investing in bitcoin is more and more people investing in the energy consumption process of bitcoin, and the value will appreciate.

But in the later period, the mechanism of using digital money in POW is basically unrealistic. Because everyone understands this principle, it is very likely that at the beginning of the network, a large amount of computing power will be purchased to form a monopoly, so this mining The game can't play anymore. In the long run, I don't think I will see the existence of more than five kinds of POW mechanisms including Bitcoin.

The POS used by Ethereum is a solution. This is the system that V God is thinking about. It is not necessary to obtain the bookkeeping right through the consumption of power, so it is very environmentally friendly. The blog of "Conspiracy" is essentially a game theory. What kind of mechanism can give all participants the benefits they deserve without creating a scene of corruption and complicity. The establishment of such a mechanism is fundamental to long-term development.

PoS has certifiers, these certifier nodes need to lock a certain amount of tokens, and after locking, there is a proof of equity. A set of verifiers alternates the proposal and votes for the generation of the next block, and the weight of the vote depends on how much it holds the token. That is to say, each network node is linked to an address. The more tokens this address holds, the greater the probability that it will acquire the next block. So what Ethereum wants to take is proof of capital. Whoever has more money, whoever locks the warehouse for a long time, the more the income, the simple and straightforward.

If an attacker tries to launch a 51% attack, it needs to hold more than 50% of the token. If a market with a market value of more than $1 billion, the cost of the attacker is at least $500 million, this becomes a paradox. . Moreover, the defense and attack of POS are not equal, and the defense is easier. The cost of restoring the network is much lower than the cost of the attacker. So the advantage of POS is that it doesn't consume a lot of energy, and the consensus is faster. But the overall technical challenge is actually very big.

As the end of his blog:

“The establishment of a possible anti-collusion mechanism infrastructure, including a strong decentralized identity system, is a formidable challenge, but if we want to unlock the potential of this mechanism, we must try our best. If we want to expand similar voting The role of the mechanism, including more advanced forms such as secondary voting and secondary financing, we have no choice but to face the challenge, try very hard, and hope to succeed in creating enough security for at least some of the use cases. ”

However, from the perspective of capital, once the POS mechanism is successfully established, it will definitely drive up the value of Ethereum.

In any capital market, how to establish a perfect lock and unlock mechanism is a key factor to promote market stability and price increases.

Among the three Internet giants in BAT, the only thing I appreciate is Tencent. Ma Huateng is the longest person in the three countries with the clearest ideas and the eyes. Of course, the three founders have their own merits, but I think his pattern is the biggest among the three. But today we are talking about the capital market.

Tencent was listed in Hong Kong stocks at 4.38 yuan in 2004. In addition to the lowest price of 3.38 yuan in the year, the bottom of the entire plate is actually rising. Except for a round of plunge in the market in 2014, the overall trend is upward. South Africa Telecom has held the highest share price since Tencent’s worst time, and it has turned 4000 times in a decade.

I happened to be lucky enough to meet relatives in the Ma Huateng family. Ma Huateng is a Chaoshan person, with particular emphasis on generations and family values. Therefore, when Tencent was listed in the early stage, in addition to giving capital, company employees and its share of shares, most of the shares other than circulation were left to their own Chaoshan family for pre-IPO investment.

The practice is also very simple. Each household decides how much to vote for. Each family has a cap. According to the family members, they are divided into quotas. However, there is a condition that all stocks are placed in family funds and cannot be unlocked. Every year, you can choose to withdraw interest or leave dividends in family funds to continue investing in Tencent stocks. The Chaoshan people are very united ethnic groups. As far as I know, after basically cashing in dividends, Tencent continued to invest in Tencent in the secondary market after the collapse of Tencent, which led to the next wave of Tencent's rise.

But you think that the investment before the listing in the year has also turned over 700 times to the highest point today. Every year, the dividends are enough to squander the next generation of these families. See no, why is Tencent's stock always rising? Why do people who invest in Tencent stocks make money? Without these lockouts, how can the unlocking mechanism, which has been designed in advance, be done? Daxie is a big brother who knows the rules of the game in the capital market, but it doesn't matter. What matters is how to do it.

At the top level, there is not much difference, and some are just a slight difference. But it is these slight differences that determine the gap between 99.99 and 100. This gap is called the gap in the pattern. The highest realm of capital market games is not to "take" but to "return". High wall, wide grain, slow to call the king. This is the opinion of the scholar Zhu Sheng on Zhu Yuanzhang's strategy of flattening the world.

The difference between Ethereum and Tencent is that Tencent has established a capital lock and unlock mechanism through clan and law, and Ethereum is built with technology. A blockchain project is a country. The digital currency that buys this blockchain project is to use your own capital to vote, which country you want to join, and become a national.

Today, we have seen a lot of people speculating on coins and speculating a lot of concepts. My personal advice has always been to not speculate on investment products that you don't understand. Whether it is a level one or a second level, whether it will make money in the short term. From the end of 2017 to the whole year of 2018, we saw a large number of altcoins falling or even disappearing. I also saw a large number of projects plunging and plunging, and I also saw many stories of leeks being cut. In fact, they are blinded by short-term interests. And many project parties did not want to understand why they are doing blockchain and doing digital currency success.

A truly sustainable country is not killing chickens and taking eggs from their own people, but it should be taken from civilians. In a word: the people who win the hearts of the people have the world.

If we carefully reflect on what happened in the past year, we can reinstate the capital market of the entire blockchain. Seeing through a thing can often help us find the essence of it:

Fundraising method

ICO can significantly reduce the game between institutional investors and project parties, because this is an area that can be directly funded from retail investors, so it is clear that users have far less direct influence on the project side than institutions. Of course, ICO is not legal in China, so this kind of opportunity is more overseas. IPO friends know that the early investor's chip cost and their stock unlocking scheme are related to the overall balance of interests. In the blockchain, this is very beneficial to experienced people.

Flow mode

A big difference between digital currency and stocks is that he can flow very freely on the court for 24 hours. If used properly, there will be many new opportunities.

Therefore, a truly valuable project should focus not on the price of the digital currency in the exchange, but on the real circulation of its digital currency on the sidelines.

Incentive System

The people who are interested in the blockchain must be because the reward and punishment mode of each different digital currency makes people shine. Everyone knows that in the era of the big voyage, the company was born in order to be fair. What you may not know is that the company opened the world's first stock exchange and became the first listed company. It actually issued its own currency. Is this feeling familiar? The incentive mode of digital currency can even be linked to the user's authority. Of course, there are a lot of pyramid money and funds. The digital currency that finds the correct reward and punishment mechanism will first run out in the market.

Brave game

This is the most difficult financial game in human history, and the most complicated financial game at the same time. Traditional financial markets have never been more complicated, and they contain too many unpredictable factors. The evolution of the entire technology has both groped in the dark and has a subtle influence on the primary and secondary markets. Whether any party involved in the market is a brave person.

Profit problem

The essence of the blockchain project should be that you think of a good idea and have the ability to implement it, find the right investor when your initial valuation is low, and then succeed or fail.

Most of the current projects are often overvalued and lack the ability to actually land. What is fatal is that there is no clear profit model, that is, the application flow pattern of digital currency and the economic closed loop. What is even more frightening is that there are still many projects that have never thought of their own digital currency to produce real application scenarios.

Of course, there are many reasons for this, such as the exchange cost of the exchange, global operating costs and so on. This is also the root cause of the opening of the hell mode in the second half of 2018. In fact, in an exquisite small model, the economic closed-loop token transfer mode is used, and the convenience of the blockchain digital currency and the diversity of the incentive system can certainly achieve some special flash products. Then make a familiar BP, or white paper, containing a bunch of the most valuable data or digital currency circulation reports.

As long as there is a blockchain project that runs a model that is completely different from the Internet and belongs to the blockchain, the entire market will rise again. If the valuation is high and there is no landing scenario, where is the investment opportunity? All became speculative, and the result was that the leek was preying on the shark.

This is why I have always said that the next wave of bull market core is the reason for the blockchain killer application.

Speculation problem

The scammers have made money because they sell coins in order to buy a car to buy a house to improve their lives, and those who want to explore the project are half-dead with a coin, and then they want to run by the institutions and retail investors. This is what happened throughout the 17 to 18 years: bad money expelled good money. Retail investors often think about winning big money. Most people who lose money will not think about gambling and losing. They will only push the responsibility to the project, just like the price of buying a house, but also the project that wants to do things. The party cannot face the vicious circle of retail investors. It is difficult to do not follow the ETH decline in the digital currency of the Ethereum trading. You bought the stock. If the RMB falls 90%, can your stock not fall?

In this big game, sometimes you don't have a gambling table, and the market has already made a note for you.

Transactions and derivatives

The blockchain is actually a complex financial market, and from the transaction, it is much more complicated than the market in any country. The guidance price of futures and options exchanges will greatly affect spot trading, and it is late; Bitfinex has great significance for spot guidance of Bitcoin; and the US East has pricing power from 10:00 to 7:00 in China time; Most of the contract exchanges are gambling with users, users win money = exchanges lose money, so friends who play futures, you are good at it.

As I said before, the reason why I value blockchain is because the technical model, thinking concept and financial system contained in it can be organically unified. As long as one runs out of the appropriate blockchain model, it is possible Change the Internet landscape of the entire world.

For all investors, I sincerely suggest that it is still in the early days of an emerging field such as the blockchain. Although the price of the entire digital currency market has fallen a lot in 18 years, it can either fall or rise. Not the most important. The key is to calm down and analyze whether there is any value in the digital currency you want to invest. In the end, the blockchain and the products you invest in can change the original Internet model in some areas.

In an early market, all investors should only make value investments, without considering any speculation. Short-term ups and downs won't make you rich overnight, but it may leave you with nothing. Only value investing allows you to cross the bulls, become friends of time, and have the power to win the market.

As I said before, Tencent is a company that we use every day and is in contact every day. If you start investing from the day he went public, you have never lost a penny until today. But if you invest in any stock that is only a large increase and you don't understand it, you may have lost all of it today. The seemingly stable and simple value ultimately gives investors unlimited returns. Slowly, it will be faster.

If you think that the blockchain can only be auxiliary, it will only become the same basic ability of big data. Then you try to do only the investment of mainstream currency, and throw high and low. If you firmly believe that blockchain is to change the future of the Internet and even humanity, then you should firmly choose to invest in digital currencies that can change the Internet model, rather than speculation.

If the market price can control you, you have not found a reason to make a firm investment in a project. Then you should go back to study, improve your understanding, and understand the project. If one day suddenly finds out that this is a fake market, Bitcoin and Ethereum both fall to nothing, then they recognize that they have made a mistake and that they are starting all over again.

But if you see it clearly and believe that the blockchain is your belief, you should be determined to go forward and find your most optimistic digital currency, whether it is Bitcoin or Ethereum or any other number that changes the Internet model. Currency, long-term holding. (Kashih Story)

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