Explore the Huaqiang North Bitcoin mining machine rivers and lakes: the blockchain is not good enough to "save the city".

Source: Daily Economic News , the original title "Re-exploring Huaqiang North Bitcoin Mining Machine Jianghu: The mining machine shop has replaced a batch of blockchains and did not bring "warmness""

Every reporter: Liu Ling is edited every time: Wei Guanhong

The blockchain industry has also ushered in a boom, and virtual currency has also risen in the wind. Among them, the bitcoin price once surged to 10,000 US dollars, the entire currency is in the carnival. The virtual currency has risen sharply, and the direct beneficiary is the mining machine linked to it. At the end of 2017, the bitcoin price broke through the historical peak of 20,000 US dollars, and the mining machine industry continued to play the myth of making wealth. China's largest miner producer Bit China, relying on "selling machines" alone, earned more than 19 billion yuan in 2017, in line with chip giant Nvidia. However, since March 2018, Bitcoin has plummeted in succession, which once caused the mining industry to fall into a cold winter.

Recently, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" once again visited the world's largest mining and distribution center – Huaqiang North SEG Plaza. Unlike the situation seen in the first visit of the reporters in early 2018, the mining machine shops in SEG Plaza have already been replaced. The good news of the blockchain does not seem to bring much warmth to the sluggish mining machine market. “The blockchain is not equal to Bitcoin. Although the price of the currency has risen, the increase of more than 2,000 US dollars is not enough for the mining industry to “save the market.” Chen Chen (a pseudonym), the owner of a mining machine shop The reporter said.

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In addition, according to media reports such as Babbitt, the industry generally expects that the third BIT will be halved around May 19, 2020. At that time, the difficulty of mining will be further enhanced. The previous generation of small-scale mining machines may face It will be permanently eliminated, and the mine machine that will be eliminated will reach 70%.

Departure and entry "seamless connection"

At the end of 2017, it is the most beautiful time for the entire Huaqiang North mining machine industry. The skyrocketing price of bitcoin has made the mining machine the most profitable business in Huaqiang North. The mining machine dealers flocked to the market, and the merchants who originally sold electronic products such as computers and mobile phones also switched to selling machines, with the intention of getting a cup of soup. For a time, more than half of the entire SEG Plaza merchants were selling mineral machines.

In January 2018, it was the first time that a reporter came to SEG Plaza. Although the bitcoin price has been adjusted back, the mining machine business is still hot. Debon Logistics's courier brother will pull the trailer full of mining machines and drive it out. Merchants from all over the world shuttled through the stalls of a mine machine to see the goods, negotiate the price, place orders… Some shops took orders of one million yuan in ten minutes.

The 4th floor of SEG Plaza is the most concentrated floor of the mining machine shop. Next to the escalator on the 4th floor, a mining machine dealer won the stall of this excellent location in 2017. At that time, his sales manager Chen Wen (a pseudonym) told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the store area is about 15 square meters, and the rent needs nearly 180,000 yuan per year. However, SEG Plaza has a “bundled sale” requirement for a well-located mining machine stall: to contract a conspicuous advertising space in the market, and to pay an advertising fee of more than 100,000 yuan a year. From this calculation, the rent cost of the stall for one year is nearly 300,000 yuan.

"When the mining machine (business) is good, this is a small meaning." Li Dali (a pseudonym), the owner of a mining machine shop on the 4th floor of SEG Plaza, told reporters. He said that when the market is good, a mining machine can earn several thousand yuan, a hundred orders, you can earn more than 100,000 yuan, and the rental cost of 300,000 yuan is only a few days of profit.

However, since February 2018, as the global news of the strengthening of the regulation of virtual currency has continued to emerge, the price of virtual currency led by Bitcoin has plummeted. The mining machine industry also entered a cold winter, the mining machine sales have shrunk severely, and the price of mining machines has also fallen and fell, and even fell below the cost price.

The rent of 300,000 yuan is no longer a "small meaning" for mining machine dealers. In September 2018, the mining machine shop where the salesperson Chen Wen was located expired, and the boss decided to withdraw the cabinet. For them, the mining machine business can also be carried out online, but Huaqiang North, which is getting thinner, is no longer their "land of contention." After the withdrawal of the cabinet, Chen Wen and several other sales personnel were arranged by the boss to go to the Xinjiang Management Mine. Some sales personnel chose to leave the company and take the customer resources of their own hands to go out alone.

On October 28, 2019, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" once again came to Huaqiang North SEG Plaza. There are still a lot of mining machines on the 4th and 5th floors, but the reporters' familiar mining machine shops are no longer on the pillars. Giant advertisements have also been replaced by the names of other mining companies, such as mining machines and mines.

Liu Yong (a pseudonym), who once had a mining machine shop on the 5th floor of SEG Plaza, told reporters that because of the decline in mining machine sales and the high rental cost, more than a dozen mining machine shops on the 4th floor of SEG Plaza were in the second half of 2018. Leave the field one after another. Just before the former batch of mining machine dealers left the scene, while the outside world sang the fading machine industry, a number of new mining machine dealers still entered the Huaqiang North SEG market at the end of 2018. Departure and entry, almost seamlessly connected.

Previously, Liu Yong’s shop was on the 5th floor elevator exit and was evacuated at the beginning of this year. It was moved later in the mining machine dealership in SEG Plaza in 2017. The takeover of Liu Yong’s shop is also a mining machine dealer. “They are optimistic about the long-term development of Bitcoin. They are waiting for the next wave of market. This is their intention. I want to finally get a transfer fee, then Just leave."

Blockchain is not good enough to "save the market"

Since late October, the good news of the blockchain has driven up the related concept stocks and virtual currencies. The data shows that as of 9:00 am on October 26, the market capitalization of the top 100 digital currency, about 90% of the currency increased by more than 15%, more than 15 varieties rose more than 30%, of which, bitcoin's increase once exceeded 40 %, the price broke through the $10,000 mark.

Even so, the SEG Plaza in Huaqiang North is still deserted. The new miners dealers who entered the downturn in the mining machine market seem to have not waited for their "next wave".

The reporter of "Daily Economic News" observed for several hours in SEG Plaza. There were not many people who entered the mining machine shop. Sometimes there were several Russians passing by, but they just took a business card and added a WeChat to leave. It is. The shopkeepers are sitting on the stools of the stalls and have been playing with their mobile phones with their heads down. They are no longer standing in front of the counter to solicit business.

“The blockchain technology will have a big market, but the blockchain is not equal to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is only the application of blockchain.” Chen Chen (a pseudonym), owner of a mining machine shop, told reporters, “So, you see the district. After the blockchain news came out, the price of Bitcoin rose for three days (25th to 27th). After breaking through $10,000, it was adjusted back to around $9,000, which was more than 2,000 dollars before the good news came out."

Chen Chen said that although the price of bitcoin has risen, the price of the bitcoin-linked mining machine has rebounded. However, for the mining industry, the increase of more than 2,000 US dollars is not enough to "save the market", and the industry is in a wait-and-see state. If there is the same market as in the second half of 2017, bitcoin continues to skyrocket, then the demand for mining machines will be detonated instantly.

For example, a salesman of a mining machine shop on the 5th floor of SEG Plaza told reporters that the price of the Shenma M20s (68T) mining machine was more than 15,000 yuan in the previous few days. After the good news came out, the price rose to around 17,000 yuan. However, the order price of this mining machine is about 15,800 yuan to 16,300 yuan. That is to say, before the good news came out, they basically lost money in selling the mining machine.

“The mining machine market is very sluggish. So far, the overall market situation is that every family has lost money. Now Sichuan is about to enter the dry season, and a large number of low-powered second-hand mining machines are coming into the market. Plus the mines of major manufacturers. The machines were issued one after another. Every mining company has a lot of mining machines in its hands. Now the good news comes out, the price of mining machines has risen, and all the shops are dumping goods.” Liu Yong told reporters.

Liu Yong also said that a mining machine with a price of 10,000 yuan would fall by one or two hundred yuan a day before the good news came out. After the good news came out, it only temporarily stabilized the market and would not let the price of the mining machine continue to fall. However, there are a lot of mining machines, few people buy them, and there are many people who are not very optimistic. "I have a mining machine in my hand, and I am cutting the meat and throwing the machine."

Seven mineralizers will face bitcoin halving crisis

The reporter of "Daily Economic News" said that when he visited SEG Plaza, he wanted to dig coins in the mines in Russia. The mining machine salesman Acheng recommended a batch of second-hand ants S9 (14T) to reporters. People who know the mining industry are not unfamiliar. Ant S9 (hereinafter referred to as S9) was once called "machine king" and has been well received by the market. At the end of 2017, the price of each ant S9 is as high as 30,000 yuan, but now it is only 10,000 yuan, and second-hand is only 750 yuan.

"Russia electricity is cheap. If you make it yourself, S9 can now dig 17 pieces of 6-bit bitcoin every day. The electricity fee is calculated according to 1 degree and 7 cents. It takes about 2 pieces of 5 hair per day, which means 15 days a day. The profit of the block money." A Cheng quickly counted on the calculator, "Each second-hand S9 price is 750 yuan, the income is 15 yuan, plus logistics and labor costs, half a year can be returned. If it is Domestically, the current S9 income is only 4 yuan a day."

After learning that the reporter was recommended for the second-hand S9, Liu Yong shook his head frequently. "In May next year, the number of bitcoins will be halved, and the miners with low computing power (10 T) will be eliminated, including S9. When the price of bitcoin is 60,000 yuan, one S9 will be charged for one day. I can earn 15 yuan, but if Bitcoin is halved, the difficulty of mining increases, and the same is the price of 60,000 yuan, which may not make money."

According to a recent report by Caijing.com, the latest shutdown price list shows that according to the current difficulty, when the comprehensive electricity fee is calculated at 0.35 yuan/kWh and the price is 8000 USD, Shenma M3, Avalon A741, Wings E9+ and Ant T9+ The four mining machines reached the closing price, while the S9 was closer to the closing price.

In fact, since December 2018, the computing power of the Bitcoin network and the difficulty of mining have been increasing in one direction. Since March this year, the major mining machine manufacturers Bitumin, Jianan Zhizhi, Core Dynamic Technology and Bit Micro have successively produced and sold large-scale mining machines, totaling more than 500,000 units, which directly pushed up the overall computing power of the whole network. BTC.com data shows that on October 24 this year, the mining difficulty reached 13.69T, and the difficulty is expected to increase by 4.65% to 14.33T after 13 days.

In addition, it will become a consensus that Bitcoin will be halved next year. The reporter learned that the 18 million bitcoins have been “bored out” and only 3 million bitcoins are currently available for “mining”. It is widely expected that the third halved bitcoin will be around May 19, 2020. At that time, the difficulty of mining will be further enhanced, and the previous generation of mining machines may face permanent elimination.

Encryption analyst Tone Vays also said that technically, by the end of 2020, bitcoin prices are unlikely to be less than $5,000. In the worst case, as Bitcoin halved, the price fell to $5,000, 70% of the miners closed due to negative income, the bitcoin price spiraled and then returned to life.

“In the past few years, the mining machine manufacturers have produced dozens of small-sized mining machines. There are hundreds of thousands of S9s in the world, not including Shenma. These machines were sold at the peak of 2017. It has also sold a lot in a few years. Although many mining machine manufacturers have produced more than 20 T mining machines in 2018, because the market is in a low period, there are not many people to buy. The five or sixty T large in March and April this year. The number of mining machines is not much. Therefore, most of the mining machines currently running on the mines are mainly low-powered.” Liu Yong told reporters that “70% of the mining machines will be eliminated, this data is almost ""

In the context of the possible halving of bitcoin next year, in addition to the elimination of the previous generation of low-power mining machines, the mining revenue cycle will also be lengthened. Taking Shenma M20S (68T) as an example, its current market price is about 16,000 yuan, although the power consumption is lower (48W/T), but due to the higher cost of mining machine, coupled with the difficulty of mining, mining It takes longer to earn back the cost of the revenue and the saved electricity bill. The actual future earnings in the future are in the foreseeable future, which is the biggest reason for the market to take a wait-and-see attitude towards the mining machine.

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