The only opportunity to participate in the speculative frenzy in the cryptocurrency circle.

The only chance to join the speculative frenzy in the crypto community.

Immerse yourself in Web3 and “invest” in the world.

Original author: 0x26

Is room-temperature superconductivity real?

If you have unique insights into this matter, you can try predicting the Polymarket market. In this market, your perspective will be greatly magnified. Every day, you can learn the latest knowledge and understand the hottest events. And who knows, you might even make a small profit based on your understanding.

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Not only topics like whether Curve’s founder will be liquidated, but also topics ranging from the existence of extraterrestrial life, the truth about room-temperature superconductors, who will be the next U.S. president between Trump and Biden, predictions of Bitcoin prices, the first-week sales of Travis Scott’s new album “Utopia,” Kylian Mbappé’s transfer destination, and even whether Twitter (X) will go bankrupt in 2023, Polymarket covers all these black swan events.

Product Overview

If users want to participate in specific events and make predictions regarding certain events, it is not difficult. If you are familiar with the Trump futures previously launched by FTX, then the operation principle of Polymarket is easy to understand.

Simply put, the sum of the positive and negative prices of tokens in each prediction market on Polymarket is equal to 1. Taking the previous U.S. election as an example, if the token price for believing Trump will win is 0.3, then the token value for believing Biden will win is 0.7. On Polymarket, the value of both tokens is higher than 1 because each transaction requires a certain fee.

In the end, if Biden wins, the value of Biden tokens is 1, and the value of Trump tokens is 0.

Actual UseGet an Account

Users can choose to register with an email or directly connect with a Web3 wallet. By transferring USDC to their proxy wallet on Polymarket, users can recharge their account. This proxy wallet holds all the user’s funds and belongs entirely to the user, and the user can obtain the private key of their proxy wallet. Using a proxy wallet allows Polymarket to provide an improved user experience, and multi-step transactions can be executed automatically.

Through the Polygon network, my USDC was almost immediately transferred to my Polymarket account.

Supporting Beliefs

In the early days, Polymarket used AMM to provide liquidity, but this approach caused some impermanent losses to liquidity providers. Now Polymarket uses the “CLOB” (Central Limit Order Book) model, which is a centralized order book. Currently, Polymarket holds some incentive activities similar to Blur, strengthening liquidity in the order book by encouraging users to place limit orders at the median through Liquidity Mining.

Using the topic of whether room-temperature superconductivity is real as an example, users who believe in room-temperature superconductivity can choose to buy on the “Trade Yes” page (blue in the image); while users who don’t believe can choose to buy on the “Trade No” page (red in the image).

Combining the price trend, let’s briefly review this event.

On July 26th, a Korean research team published a paper claiming to have successfully discovered the world’s first room-temperature superconductor “LK-99”. This material can reach the superconducting critical point at a normal pressure of 127 degrees Celsius.

On July 27th, Polymarket opened the “prediction market on whether room-temperature superconductivity is real” with a 50:50 ratio, and the number of people who disagreed quickly increased. At its peak, this market believed that there was an 85% probability that this room-temperature superconductivity was fake.

With the news of a paper submitted by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in the arXiv, which supports LK-99 as a room-temperature ambient pressure superconductor, the market’s optimism for room-temperature superconductivity surged, causing a major reversal. At one point, the market had a 60% probability of believing in room-temperature superconductivity. In other words, in Polymarket, which allows real-time trading, users who believed in room temperature could earn more than double the profit.

With more research and discussion, the probability of success for room-temperature superconductivity is now believed to have decreased again.

The dust has settled

Prior to opening the prediction market, Polymarket set specific criteria for each prediction. Users need to carefully read the criteria before participating to avoid disputes.

Take the recent popular market “Will Curve founder be liquidated” as an example. The criteria set by Polymarket is, “If any part of Curve founder Michael Egorov’s multi-million dollar position on Aave or Fraxlend is forcibly liquidated before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on August 15th, the market will decide YES. Otherwise, the market will decide NO.”

During the process of determining the result, users can also learn about the positions of both parties through the data provided by the official.

User participation in whether room-temperature superconductivity is real

Leaderboard of Polymarket, where the top-ranked user earned over 900,000 USD

Verbal battles

To some extent, Polymarket can be considered an outstanding product. Because here, you can have serious “discussions” with users from around the world about specific events, rather than just speculating on coins.

Some popular market sections also incorporate Disqus functionality, as if they have installed a Baidu Tieba in these prediction markets. Users can freely express themselves here, not only sharing relevant information about the topics but also expressing their opinions directly.

Note: Due to the existence of a large number of bots, Polymarket has disabled the discussion section of some markets.

Not only on the website, but also in the official community of Polymarket, members are knowledgeable and well-informed, with cryptocurrency being just one of their six major discussion groups.

A Polymarket user stated that their laboratory has successfully conducted experiments on room-temperature superconductivity.

However, Polymarket currently does not support self-built markets. If users want to create a market for a specific event, they still need to submit a series of materials for review by the Polymarket team.

Even so, the team has been fined $1.4 million by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for market themes that do not comply with regulations.

Regarding the charm of such a fair and transparent prediction market, Mike from 1confirmation summarized it well:

“Polymarket is able to quickly create markets for popular topics such as culture, technology, and politics, attracting a diverse community. These community members are not only vibrant but can also use Polymarket as a real barometer of sentiment.”

Prediction markets based on cryptocurrency are a way to combat the spread of incorrect or biased information in the media and provide economic incentives for people to seek the truth.

The era of mass adoption of prediction markets is approaching. With the world becoming more interconnected and information spreading faster, there is a growing demand for reliable, community-driven platforms.”

We will continue to update Blocking; if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact us!